Snopes Howard Stern I Will Never Vote Democrat Again

By Brooks Jackson, Eugene Kiely, Robert Farley, Lori Robertson, Jessica McDonald, Rem Rieder and D'Angelo Gore, Factcheck.org

The fact-checking fodder included claims well-nigh the economic system, the Democratic nominee and the president'southward actions.

Here is the analysis:

Kudlow'due south False Economic History

Kudlow painted a false picture, claiming Trump inherited "a stagnant economy on the forepart terminate of recession" and then adding, "The economic system was rebuilt in 3 years."

Only the fact is, equally nosotros wrote on the twenty-four hours Trump took office, Trump inherited "an economy experiencing steady if unspectacular growth in output, jobs and incomes." After the terrible 2007-2009 recession that Obama inherited, the economy had posted six straight years of economical growth and was near to mail a 7th.

Obama'due south best twelvemonth was 2015, when growth was initially estimated to be 2.half-dozen% merely is now estimated at iii.i%. Trump's "rebuilt" economic system achieved just short of that — 3.0% by current estimate — in his all-time year, 2018.

Kudlow's merits that the economic system was "on the front end of recession" isn't supported by the facts. The month before Trump took office, among economists surveyed by the National Association for Business concern Economic science only viii% were predicting a recession any time in 2017, and their consensus prediction was that growth would accelerate to two.2% in 2017.

Four days afterward Trump took office, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office forecast that nether then-current police force, economic growth would be two.3% in 2017 (which turned out to be exactly correct) and ii.0% in 2018.

That would support a claim that Trump's tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks boosted the growth by 1 percent point above expectations in 2018 before weakening in 2019. But the merits that Trump "rebuilt" an economy on the verge of a downturn is absurd.

Eric Trump's Economic Exaggerations

The president'southward son Eric embellished reality when he said:

Eric Trump, Aug. 25: [T]he economy soared to new heights — heights never seen earlier. Wages went through the roof.

It's true thatsouthward tock prices set records, but chore growth actually slowed during Trump's starting time three years, earlier crashing when the COVID-19 pandemic hit this year.

Even at its best, the economy as a whole never grew at the 4% to half dozen% charge per unit that Trump was still promising as recently equally December of his first yr in office. As we've already noted, Trump's best year saw 3% growth, a bit less than the 3.i% seen in 2015.

As for wages, information technology's truthful that paychecks continued to abound faster than prices during Trump's tenure — equally they had for many years previously. But they have non gone "through the roof," or fifty-fifty equaled the levels seen back in the 1970s.

The real (inflation-adapted) average weekly earnings of rank-and-file production and nonsupervisory workers went up 3.2% during Trump's first three years, after rising 4.ii% during Obama'due south time.

Ironically, average wages take shot upwardly another 4.four% this year despite a wicked recession — but that's because millions of depression-wage workers have been laid off while higher-wage workers are able to continue working remotely during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Still, average weekly earnings in July were still 4%below the top month of February 1973; that's the real "roof."

Biden's Revenue enhancement Programme

Eric Trump also misleadingly claimed that nether Biden's tax plan, "82% of Americans will run into their taxes go up significantly." Biden'due south plan does not call for whatsoever straight tax increases for anyone making less than $400,000, only contained tax analysts say Biden's programme to raise corporate taxes will indirectly affect employees due to lower investment returns or lower wages over fourth dimension.

As a event, about Americans would run across a reduction in after-tax income, but "[t]he change would be small for almost of those middle- and lower-income households—on average, merely a fraction of a per centum of their after-tax income—and nosotros gauge that 80 percent of the new tax revenue would come from the peak 1 pct by income," according to John Ricco, a senior taxation analyst at the Penn Wharton Budget Model that is the basis for the 82% figure cited by Eric Trump.

Every bit we've explained before, Biden's tax plan includes provisions such as imposing a payroll revenue enhancement on earnings over $400,000, restoring a acme income tax rate of 39.half dozen% for income above $400,000, and increasing the top corporate taxation charge per unit from 21% to 28%.

In an interview with ABC News on Aug. 23, Biden vowed there would be "No new taxes" for anyone making nether $400,000 a yr.

Ricco said that "[5]ery few families would exist sending larger checks to the IRS (or having more than money withheld from their paychecks) nether Biden'due south proposal."

"If you're lookingonlyat private income taxes and payroll taxes, we discover that about two percent of all families would see their taxes go up directly under the Biden plan — near all of them in the top 5 percent by income," Ricco told us via email.

But when you include Biden's plan to increase corporate taxes, the Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis found that "the tax plan volition bear on 82 percentage of families," Ricco said. "Merely instead of seeing their taxes get upward directly, those additional families are paying the corporate revenue enhancement hikes in the class of lower investment returns or lower wages over time. The change would be minor for most of those centre- and lower-income households."

Co-ordinate to the Penn Wharton Budget Model — which estimates the Biden tax plan would heighten betwixt $3.1 trillion and $three.vii trillion over 10 years  — eye-income earners would see their later-taxation income refuse by 0.4%, or $180, on boilerplate.

"To explain a bit more: because the corporate income tax is remitted by corporations and not people, economists have to make some assumptions about which people ultimately bear the burden of that tax," Ricco said. "We assume that, in the long run, a quarter of the corporate income tax falls on workers in the form of lower wages. This effigy is based on an extensive body of economic enquiry, and government agencies like the Joint Committee on Taxation, the Congressional Budget Office, and the Treasury Department's Role of Revenue enhancement Analysis apply a similar assumption. So while those workers wouldn't literally exist remitting more in taxes, over fourth dimension they would end up shouldering some of the burden of the tax increase."

A Tax Foundation analysis of Biden'south revenue enhancement plan similarly plant that while the majority of the new taxation burden would fall on the wealthiest Americans, "taxpayers in other income quintiles would also run across a reduction in their later on-taxation income … mainly due to the increased taxation burden on labor from higher corporate income taxes."

"Most of the effect of Biden's tax plan on those earning under $400,000 comes from the proposed corporate income tax increase and minimum corporate income tax," Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, told us via electronic mail. "This would touch on taxpayers under $400K both by reducing wage income equally some of the corporate income tax is borne by workers, and through lower returns and valuations of corporate equities and related avails, which are owned by many taxpayers under $400K in retirement and taxable investment accounts."

"There is a distinction between a direct taxation increase – the amount of tax paid by taxpayers to the government — and the share of taxation hikes that are ultimately borne by taxpayers in the form of lower incomes," Watson said. "Our estimates show that many Americans nether $400K would have lower-later on tax incomes as a result of the proposals, but they would not necessarily take larger tax bills. We agree with Penn Wharton that the bottom 90% is unlikely to face any net tax hike outside of the indirect effects of the corporate revenue enhancement hikes. With that in mind, information technology'southward more than precise to say that Biden'due south plan would lower the incomes of 82 percent of Americans as a result of the tax changes, but non that it would generate a larger direct tax nib for those Americans."

Comparing Biden's plan to the tax cuts championed by President Trump, Eric Trump added one of the most repeated, and most fact-checked, simulated claims of the Trump presidency: that his male parent "delivered the largest taxation cuts in American history." Despite the persistence of this merits, in that location take been more expensive tax laws in terms of percent of gross domestic product and aggrandizement-adapted dollars.

Women in Leadership

First Lady Melania Trump claimed that the president "has built an administration with an unprecedented number of women in leadership roles." That'southward not backed up past available data. In fact, Presidents Barack Obama and Neb Clinton accept appointed more women to Cabinet-level positions in one term than Trump has in his.

Our fact-checking colleagues at theWashington Mail service looked into a similar claim in 2018, awarding four Pinocchios to Lara Trump, Eric Trump's married woman.

Allow'south start with the Cabinet positions. According to the Middle for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, Trump had appointed six women to Cabinet or Cabinet-level positions every bit of Apr 2019. Obama had appointed eight women in each of his ii terms, and Clinton appointed vii in his first term, six in his second term.

Trump now has iv women in his Cabinet.

Looking at presidential appointments beyond the Chiffonier, at that place isn't one standard source for that information. Just the sources theMail found dispute the claim that Trump has more women in leadership roles than by presidents.

Of the 679 Senate-confirmed appointments nether Trump, 25% have been women, co-ordinate to a database of key executive branch nominations created by thePost and Partnership for Public Service. ANew York Timesanalysis in January 2013 (before Obama'due south second term) found:"Nearly 43 percentage of Mr. Obama'southward appointees have been women, about the aforementioned proportion as in the Clinton administration, but up from the roughly ane-third appointed by George W. Bush."

That would put all three of those administrations ahead of the Trump administration, merely the source for the Trump data isn't the same. And then they can't be directly compared. Other measures still detect higher percentages of women appointees under Bush and Clinton.

The Knight Ridder news service constitute 37% of Clinton's first 512 appointees were women, co-ordinate to an article past Women'southward eNews, while the Brookings Institution found 26.1% of Bush's 264 nominations, as of July 2001, were women.

We reached out to the first lady'due south part about her claim but we haven't received a response.

Iraq War

Paul wasn't fully transparent when he tried to contrast the 2 presidential candidates for their positions on the Republic of iraq War.

"Joe Biden voted for the Iraq War," he said, "which President Trump has long called the worst geopolitical mistake of our generation."

The office almost Biden is true, although he criticized the manner the Bush administration handled the war and by the end of 2005, would vocalisation regret for voting for the war authority.

Then a U.S. senator from Delaware, Biden voted on Oct. eleven, 2002 — along with 28 other Democrats and 48 Republicans — to give President George West. Bush the unilateral power to attack Republic of iraq.

As we wrote during the last presidential campaign, although Trump claimed to have "fought very, very hard confronting us … going into Republic of iraq," there is no evidence that Trump was against the war prior to it starting.

In a Sept. xi, 2002, radio interview, host Howard Stern asked Trump if he supported going to war, and he reluctantly responded, "Yep, I guess so."

The first overtly negative comments Trump made publicly nigh the Iraq State of war occurred on March 25, 2003, six days afterwards the war began, when theWashington Postreported that Trump called the war "a mess" at a post-OscarsVanity Fair party. Merely his comments were in the context of the state of war's impact on the stock market place.

In July 2003, Trump said in a boob tube interview that he wished the money beingness spent in Republic of iraq could exist spent in New York City instead, and in November of that year Trump questioned whether the U.S. should have gone to Republic of iraq.

Trump's opposition to the war was clear past 2004, although he supported Bush for reelection that twelvemonth. In a Nov. 27, 2005, "Run into the Press" interview, Biden chosen his vote a "mistake," and said he would have voted "no" had he known how the administration would handle the situation.

"It was a mistake to assume the president would use the authority we gave him properly," he added.

Information technology'due south true that both men have long opposed the war. Biden played a role in allowing Bush-league to proceed with information technology, but there'due south no evidence Trump opposed the war before information technology began.

Biden's Stance on Police

Eric Trump repeated the imitation claim made past many Republicans that Biden wants to "defund the police," despite the fact that Biden has said he is opposed to the thought.

"Biden has pledged to defund the police," the president'south son said.

But as we have written, Biden has said on a number of occasions that he is opposed to defunding the police, and a Biden spokesman told us the Autonomous nominee supports more funding for police for some functions, such equally initiatives to strengthen customs relationships and for body-worn cameras.

Biden wrote in an op-ed inUnited states Today on June 10, "While I exercise not believe federal dollars should go to police departments violating people's rights or turning to violence as the start resort, I do not support defunding police. The better answer is to requite law departments the resource they need to implement meaningful reforms, and to condition other federal dollars on completing those reforms."

The federal government pays a small percentage of law enforcement expenses. According to a backgrounder by the Urban Establish, 86% of police funding in 2017 was from local governments, with additional money ponied upwardly by state governments.

As nosotros've written, at that place is no agreed upon definition for the term "defund the police force." Some critics of the police actually do want to cancel police force forces and supersede them with other forms of community condom entities. Others advocate shifting some money and functions away from police departments to social service agencies. Only in campaign ads and verbal attacks on Biden, Republicans generally utilise the term to hateful devastating upkeep cuts for law enforcement, something Biden conspicuously opposes.

Biden backs underwriting initiatives in which social workers and mental health personnel would squad up with police in some cases, an arroyo Trump has endorsed.

Biden'south justice platform says that "these service providers volition reply to calls with police force officers so individuals who should not be in the criminal justice system are diverted to treatment for addiction or mental health problems, or are provided with the housing or other social services they may need."

In June, Trump signed an executive order calling for the attorney full general to look for opportunities "to provide guidance regarding the evolution and implementation of co-responder programs, which involve social workers or other mental health professionals working aslope police enforcement officers so that they arrive and address situations together."

Biden and the 2d Amendment

Eric Trump also falsely claimed that Biden would "have away your cherished Second Subpoena."

While Biden champions a number of gun regulation initiatives, he has never called for an end to the Second Amendment. In fact, his entrada platform says, "It's within our grasp to finish our gun violence epidemic and respect the 2nd Amendment, which is limited. As president, Biden will pursue constitutional, mutual-sense gun safety policies."

The elements of Biden's gun safety policy include banning the industry and sale of attack weapons and loftier-capacity magazines, and a voluntary program to purchase dorsum assault weapons and high-capacity magazines from those who now possess them. Under Biden's programme, set on weapons owners could either sell the weapons to the authorities or register them nether the National Firearms Human action.

In 1994, Biden shepherded legislation that, among other things, banned set on weapons, only the ban expired 10 years later.

As we take written, after Democratic presidential hopeful Beto O'Rourke — a proponent of mandatory buybacks of set on weapons — endorsed Biden in March, misinformation near Biden'south position on guns began to circulate. Videos and articles suggested Biden would be confiscating weapons should he brand it to the White House. But that was unfounded.

While Biden did say O'Rourke would assist him with gun policy, he never adopted the mandatory buyback approach.

Drug Overdose Deaths

Ryan Holets, a constabulary officer from Albuquerque, New United mexican states, touted the Trump administration'due south deportment to combat the opioid epidemic, including boosted funding and a safer prescribing initiative started in March 2018. Holets said, "And it'due south having an impact. Drug overdose deaths decreased in 2018 for the showtime time in 30 years."

Holets' factoid is nearly right. Information technology comes from a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention written report from January 2020, which found that overdose deaths declined year over year in 2018 for the commencement time since 1990. That's a 28-twelvemonth span, non quite iii decades.

Just more than critically, the statistic is misleading considering the virtually recent information available show that overdose deaths have since increased. Co-ordinate to the CDC'south National Vital Statistics Arrangement, there were 71,148 reported deaths and 72,041 predicted deaths for the year catastrophe with December 2019.

That's up from 67,850 reported deaths and 68,699 predicted deaths for the same period in 2018 and also outstrips the previous high for 2017.

When limiting to only opioid deaths, the pattern is the same. The most contempo data, for the year ending with January 2020, is higher than at any other point.

The idea that the 1-year drib in drug overdose deaths might be temporary was noted at the fourth dimension past the lead author of the CDC study. Dr. Holly Hedegaard, an injury epidemiologist at the CDC's National Center for Wellness Statistics, toldU.Due south. News & Globe Written report that while statistically meaning, the decrease between 2017 and 2018 "could be just a temporary bleep" and that "a one-year alter isn't plenty to really say, 'Now we're over the hump.'"

Holets also suggested that Trump should get credit for a reject in opioid prescribing. "Nosotros're seeing that doctors are writing fewer prescriptions for opioid pain drugs," he said. "These are meaning improvements that accept a meaningful bear upon."

It's true that opioid prescribing has fallen under Trump. According to the most recent CDC information, the number of opioid prescriptions in the U.Southward. dropped in 2017 and 2018 by xi% and 12%, respectively, and the prescribing rate has declined to a low of 51.iv prescriptions per 100,000 people.

Some of that decrease, even so, comes with a caveat. The CDC website shows that the pct of counties with available data also decreased for both years, and reporting of prescriptions changed in 2017 to reflect the number sold to patients, rather than dispensed prescriptions. "This change in measurement frame resulted in a 1.9% downward shift in the measured opioid prescriptions dispensed," the CDC page explains. "Thus, caution should be exercised when examining trends during this time menses."

And every bit we've written, opioid prescribing has been falling for years. According to a 2018 written report by IQVIA Establish for Human Data, the driblet in prescribing was driven past "changes in clinical usage, which have been influenced by regulatory and reimbursement policies and legislation that accept been increasingly restricting prescription opioid use since 2012." That includes new state laws that restrict opioid prescribing besides as laws at the federal level.

Thus, while Trump can take some credit, his actions have been part of a yearslong effort past government officials, medical professionals and others to reduce the scourge of opioid drugs in America.

Faux Ukraine Narrative

Bondi made the baseless claim that Biden abused the ability of his office as vice president to improperly intervene in a Ukrainian investigation of a Ukrainian gas visitor that employed his son, Hunter.

She repeated the now familiar story of Burisma; Hunter Biden, who served on the company'due south board from 2014 to 2019; and Joe Biden's role in the firing of old Ukraine Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.

Bondi, Aug. 25: A corrupt Ukrainian oligarch put Hunter on the board of his gas company, even though he had no experience in Ukraine — or in the energy sector. … That very same company was being investigated past a Ukrainian prosecutor. Joe Biden — the vice president of the United States— threatened to withhold assist to Ukraine unless that aforementioned prosecutor was fired. And then he was fired.

It'due south truthful that Biden once said he told Ukrainian leaders that the U.S. would withhold $1 billion in loan guarantees if Ukraine did not burn down Shokin. But Bondi implies Biden was protecting his son'south company from existence investigated, and there is no testify to support that claim.

The Obama administration, non merely Biden, joined the international community and anti-corruption advocates in Ukraine in calling for Shokin to be removed from office for his failure to aggressively prosecute abuse.

In February 2016, 2 months after Biden visited Ukraine and met with its leaders, Imf Managing Managing director Christine Lagarde threatened to withhold $forty billion unless Ukraine undertook "a substantial new attempt" to fight corruption. She issued IMF's threat after Ukraine's economic minister and his team resignedto protest government corruption. That same calendar month, a "reform-minded deputy prosecutor resigned, complaining that his efforts to address regime corruption had been consistently stymied by his own prosecutor full general, Viktor Shokin," co-ordinate to a Jan. 3, 2017, Congressional Research Service study.

The president and his campaign have been pushing this faux narrative for more than a twelvemonth. It likewise led to Trump's impeachment, which was triggered by a whistleblower who claimed Trump asked Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate the Bidens and Burisma. The White House released a memo of a July 25, 2019, phone call betwixt the leaders that confirmed the whistleblower'south account, and a subsequent House investigation determined that the Trump administration threatened to withhold military aid to Ukraine until Zelensky publicly announced Ukraine would investigate the Bidens.

On Dec. 18, 2019, the House voted 230-197 on the starting time article of impeachment ("corruption of power") and 229-198 on the second article ("obstruction of Congress"). On February. 5, the Senate voted to acquit Trump on both impeachment counts: 53-47 on obstruction of Congress and 52-48 on corruption of power.

Meaningless War machine Pay Boast

Eric Trump fabricated the meaningless avowal that his father "increased wages for our incredible men and women in compatible." In fact, President Trump was just following the automatic cost-of-living formula required past federal law.

"Nether current law, the pay heighten for service members is, by default, set to equal the percentage change in" the employment cost alphabetize for private-sector workers' wages and salaries, as the Congressional Budget Function explained in a 2018 written report.

It's true that the president can seek an adjustment in the formula, and Congress can pass legislation that would "supercede the automatic adjustment and/or any presidential adjustment," the Congressional Research Service said in a July 17 written report.

Simply, every bit we wrote in July, Trump has stuck to the formula, except for his start budget, when he proposed an increase of 2.1% — less than the 2.4% level gear up by the formula for fiscal yr 2018. Congress overrode the president'due south proposal and provided the full military pay hike, according to the CRS study.

Trump'southward next iii proposed budgets all followed the statutory formula, according to CRS and the White House financial 2021 upkeep proposal.

Trump'due south Bacon

Bondi said that Trump donates his regime salary without mentioning that his visitor all the same receives taxpayer money.

"He'south a tough, no-nonsense outsider who tin can't exist bought or intimidated. He won't even take a paycheck from the American people. He donates his paycheck to charities across this country," she said.

It's true that Trump donates his quarterly paychecks as president, which are about $78,000 after taxes. Merely while Bondi said Trump gives his salary to "charities," he actually donated his checks from 2017 to 2019 to 12 different federal agencies or offices, including the National Parks Service and the Section of Teaching.

Furthermore, Trump all the same collects taxpayer funds in some other way.

In May, theWashington Postal service, based on its review of federal records, reported that "the U.Southward. authorities has paid at least $970,000 to President Trump'southward company since Trump took office — including payments for more than 1,600 nightly room rentals at Trump's hotels and clubs."

The payments were for federal staffers and members of the U.S. Underground Service who accompanied the president on numerous trips to his concern backdrop, thePost said. The paper besides noted that its figure was probable an undercount, and that "neither the Trump Organization nor the Trump assistants has provided a full accounting of how much taxpayer coin has been paid to Trump'due south companies" since he was inaugurated in January 2017.

The nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, noting that Trump has refused to completely sever ties with his company, also has said that Trump is still profiting from being president.

On its page almost "All the President's Profiting," the campaign finance watchdog says: "By keeping his assets in a family-managed trust, which he can revoke at any time, Trump and his family unit are in the unique position to profit direct from his public service. Special interests in Washington accept defenseless on. Those seeking to curry favor with Trump are not but altruistic to his reelection campaign but belongings fundraisers and galas at his resorts, private clubs and hotels – the proceeds of which benefit him and his family unit."

Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National); Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted." Data extracted 26 Aug 2020.

Schwartz, Ian. "Trump: We're Going To Come across Economic Growth Of 4, 5 And Maybe 6 Percent." Real Articulate Politics. sixteen Dec 2017.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National); Average Weekly Earnings of product and nonsupervisory employees, 1982-1984 Dollars." Data extracted 24 Aug 2020.

Farley, Robert. "Trump Distorts Biden's Tax Plan." FactCheck.org. thirteen May 2020.

ABC News. "TRANSCRIPT: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris' get-go articulation interview with ABC'due south David Muir." 23 Aug 2020.

Penn Wharton Budget Model. "The Updated Biden Taxation Plan: Budgetary, Distributional, and Economic Furnishings." 10 Mar 2020.

Li, Huaqun, Watson, Garrett, and LaJoie, Taylor. "Details and Analysis of Former Vice President Biden'due south Tax Proposals." Tax Foundation. 29 Apr 2020.

Gore, D'Angelo, Farley, Robert and Kiely, Eugene. "Trump Stump Speeches: Economic system." FactCheck.org. 26 Oct 2018.

Kiely, Eugene. "FactChecking Trump'due south State of the Union." FactCheck.org. 31 Jan 2018.

Robertson, Lori. "Groundhog Friday, Groundhog Day Edition." FactCheck.org. two Feb 2018.

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Source: https://www.rollcall.com/2020/08/26/rnc-fact-check-questioning-economic-and-tax-claims/

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